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Monday, April 29, 2019

'Biggest bear' on Target upgrades the stock, says shares to rally nearly 50%

The self-proclaimed biggest bear on Wall Street on Target upgraded the stock on Monday, saying the recent weakness in the stock due to Amazon competition concerns is a buying opportunity.

Barclays' Matthew McClintock upgraded Target to overweight from equal weight and raised his 12-month price target on the retailer to $115 from $85. The new target represents a 49% surge from Friday's close of $77.12.

In a portion of the report entitled "Why the biggest bear on TGT finally upgraded the stock," the analyst goes on to explain that the decline in Target shares in the last week after Amazon's said it was moving towards one-day shipping for Prime customers has gone too far. Target shares are down more than 5% in the last week.

"We have now decided with the pullback in the stock due to recent Amazon fears, our expected downside from this near-term view is meaningfully derisked," wrote the analyst. Target "is already ahead of AMZN in same day delivery...and has built a supply chain that fulfills e-commerce primarily from stores (where next-day delivery is much easier), which stands in contrast to most retailers."

The analyst had upgraded target to equal weight in January of this year and before that the firm had a sell rating going back to at least mid-2016.

Bigger picture, McClintock believes there's been a "narrative change" that means the stock deserves a higher valuation. He trumpets market share opportunities in apparel and home furnishings and says Target "is a leader in practically everything investors use to support other retailers that they like."

"The company is well ahead of most retailers in: 1) employee pay; 2) store experience... 3) digital, and merchandising/private label," he added in the note.

Target shares jumped 2% Monday in premarket trading following the call.

— With reporting by Michael Bloom

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