Wall Street has its first 2019 stock market projection. And things are looking very bullish to Credit Suisse.
Chief equity strategist Jonathan Golub told clients in a note published Tuesday that he expects the S&P 500 to rocket past his 2018 target of 3,000 points all the way to 3,350 points by next December. That's more than 15 percent upside from current levels and more than 11 percent from his December 2018 target.
"Our 2019 price target of 3,350 implies an 11.4 percent annualized advance over the next 16 months," Golub wrote.
But it won't be strong earnings that drive the gains like this year, but rather multiple expansion, the firm said.
"We expect earnings per share growth to decelerate from 21.5 percent in 2018 to 7.7 percent in 2019, largely the result of fading tax impacts, and is in-line with historical averages."
This is not the first time Credit Suisse has published encouraging equity analysis in recent months.
Golub's team chided investors earlier this year for worrying too much about trade tensions, the specter of inflation and peak earnings, writing that fear could prevent many from realizing healthy returns.
At the time, Credit Suisse told clients "while each issue has merit, we believe investors are under-estimating the market's potential upside, and over-estimating risks."
The stock market proved Golub right, with the S&P 500 rebounding to a record last week.
The S&P 500 finished at 2,901.52 points on Friday; the U.S. stock market was closed Monday for the Labor Day holiday.
While Golub was upbeat on 2019 for the most part, he cautioned that the coming year could include more volatility and higher borrowing costs.
"The next 16-months will be particularly tricky for investors, with the threat of yield curve inversion, potentially disruptive midterm elections, and continued Fed tightening," Golub wrote. "Despite these headline risks we believe that solid economic/EPS growth and benign recessionary risks will be sufficient to propel the market higher."
He also acknowledged fears about signals being sent from the bond market, where a narrower gap between government bond yields is kindling fears that a recession is looming.
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