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Friday, February 1, 2019

The jobs report was just a blowout. Here's what usually happens next

The January jobs report showed more than 100,000 jobs were created last month than economists expected. Beats of that magnitude usually spark a lot of optimism about the economy, driving stocks higher over the subsequent days and months and benefiting energy, industrial and banking stocks the most, history shows.

CNBC analysis using Kensho looked at all the times in the last 20 years when the jobs report exceeded estimates by 100K or more and what happens to stocks and certain sectors the day of the report, as well as one week and three months later.

  • S&P 500 jumps 0.6 percent on average
  • Best stocks: Industrials (+1.1 percent avg. gain), Energy (+0.9 percent), Technology (+0.8 percent)

This fits with the current reaction as stock futures surge in reaction to Friday's better-than-expected report.

  • S&P 500 adds 0.6 percent on average
  • Best stocks: Industrials (+1.5 percent avg. gain), Energy (+1.2 percent), Technology (+0.9 percent)
  • S&P 500 adds 1.8 percent
  • Best stocks: Energy (+6.9 percent) Materials (+4.2 percent avg. gain), Industrials (+3.4 percent), Financials (+3.2 percent)

This historical data via Kensho fits with the fundamental case. A much stronger-than-expected jobs report signals the economy is doing better than we thought, so investors pile into economically-sensitive stocks like energy and industrial shares. Bank stocks do well as rates jump, like they were on Friday.

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