If President Donald Trump follows up on his threat to close the southern border, it could potentially result in millions of dollars in losses to local businesses in regions such as San Diego County. It also could disrupt thousands of truckloads of fresh produce, parts and other products that cross the border from Mexico to California every day.
"It would be very damaging to border areas like San Diego," said Lynn Reaser, chief economist for the Fermanian Business and Economic Institute at Point Loma Nazarene University in San Diego. "There is a tight nexus between the southern most part of California, for example, and Mexico."
The San Ysidro port crossing located between Tijuana and San Diego is one of the busiest in the nation, where more than 20,000 people cross daily and nearly 50,000 cars. There's also another port of entry about 8 miles east about 3,500 trucks cross daily, Otay Mesa.
The San Ysidro crossing briefly shut down for a few hours in late November after a caravan of refugees from Central America made their way to the border to request asylum. One estimate released in November by the San Ysidro Chamber of Commerce put the losses from that shut down at $5.3 million.
Trump tweeted the threat Friday morning, writing "we will be forced to close the Southern Border entirely if the Obstructionist Democrats do not give us the money to finish the Wall & also change the ridiculous immigration laws that our Country is saddled with."
California's Gov.-elect Gavin Newsom responded, tweeting: "$558 billion worth of goods flow across our America's southern border. BILLIONS of dollars — MILLIONS of jobs depend on our border. The President of the United States playing games with our economy and threatening to shut down our border is irresponsible, irrational and absurd."
https://twitter.com/GavinNewsom/status/1078722608583958528
Newsom, a Democrat, is set to take office on Jan. 7.
The closing could have ripple effects along the southern border from El Paso and Laredo in Texas to Otay Mesa and San Ysidro in California. More than one-third of the annual truck crossings take place in Laredo and roughly 15 percent are from the Otay Mesa crossing, according to U.S. Department of Transportation.
U.S. Customs and Border Protection referred question to the White House for comment. The White House didn't immediately respond to a request for comment at deadline.
Several business leaders in the southern border region expressed concern Friday about the threat by Trump to shut the entire border. They said a shut down could cost the local economy millions of dollars every day, impacting both large and small companies — including some part of a closely linked supply chain relied on by the electronics, automotive, aviation and other industries.
"The North American supply chain would be crumbled," said Alejandra Mier y Teran, executive director of the Otay Mesa Chamber of Commerce. "A lot of parts are coming from Southern California and go to Baja California and then come back assembled or manufactured."
She added, "A shut down at the border would mean a shut down of our entire community."
The vast majority of employees in the Otay Mesa area depend on "some sort of cross-border relationship," the chamber executive added. She said some local companies are involved in the two-way trade, while others employ U.S. citizens who choose to live in cities such as Tijuana and rely on crossing the border to reach their jobs.
"People cross daily from Tijuana to work in construction, landscaping, hotels, and other industries," said Reaser, who was Bank of America's chief economist from 1996 to 2009. "Mexicans also cross the border to shop and support the tourist sector. "All of these industries would be seriously hurt if the border were closed."
The agriculture industry also is vulnerable in a shutdown. Mexico is the largest exporter of fresh produce into the U.S. market, although the U.S. also imports produce, meats, dairy products and other agriculture goods across the border.
Thousands of trucks cross port of entries such as Nogales and San Luis in Arizona delivering vegetables during the winter growing season. There also are thousands of temporary workers from Mexico who cross into border states to work in the fields over the peak months of the growing season.
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