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Friday, October 5, 2018

Stock market will have a year-end rally, predicts Raymond James' Jeff Saut

Wall Street veteran Jeff Saut isn't necessarily concerned about the recent sell-off in the stock market.

On Friday, equities fell once again after interest rates moved higher.

"We would take small trading profits here," Saut said in an interview with CNBC's "Closing Bell" on Friday.

While his short-term model was forecasting the market would move higher into November, that flipped after the recent rally attempts earlier this week.

"The market is going to be on the defensive for another few weeks, but we think it sets up the year-end rally," added Saut, chief investment strategist at Raymond James.

The two-day sell-off followed a rally on Wednesday that saw the Dow Jones Industrial Average hit a record high.

On Friday, the S&P 500 closed 0.6 percent lower, the Dow dropped 180.43 points and the Nasdaq Composite pulled back 1.2 percent. On Thursday, the Dow posted its worst day since Aug. 10. Meanwhile, the S&P 500 posted its worst week in nearly a month.

Saut, who has been calling for the bull market to last another seven to eight years, predicted the sell-off in February. Since that time he has been forecasting new highs.

Rebecca Patterson, chief investment officer at Bessemer Trust, called the sell-off normal and "nothing to panic over."

"We had a big run, and we are seeing strong data, generally," she told "Closing Bell."

"The backbone of the U.S. economy is good. We're nowhere near a recession," she added. "So yields rising, I think, generally does reflect a stronger economy and a Fed that should be gradually tightening, but it doesn't mean it's game over yet."

Saut said the recent rotation out of small-cap stocks and back into large-caps "puts the wind at the back of the Googles of the world again."

He also said names such as Apple, which was just dumped by Greenlight Capital's David Einhorn over trade-war fears, are the kind of stocks to buy between now and the end of the year. That's because he thinks the trade war with China will be settled by the first quarter of next year, he said.

However, Patterson said while her firm is overweight tech, right now the sector is facing a "perfect storm."

Not only are interest rates higher but some tech stocks are expensive and fears about U.S.-China trade issues are getting worse, she said. On top of that there are concerns over regulation, which will be brought up on the campaign trail heading into midterm elections, she added.

"Even if starting to get good valuations in tech, how many people want to bottom-fish and bring that sector back up until we get a little more clarity on U.S.-China and the regulatory regime?" Patterson said.

— CNBC's Fred Imbert contributed to this report.

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