Economist Mohamed El-Erian told CNBC on Monday there's a 60 percent chance that President Donald Trump's hard line with China and Europe yields "fairer trade" for the U.S.
El-Erian, chief economic advisor at Allianz, said on "Squawk Box" there are 15 percent odds that Trump's approach results in a "Reagan moment" in trade. "That would transform the landscape."
However, El-Erian said there's a 25 percent that Trump's trade moves spark in a global trade war.
The idea of a possible "Reagan moment" compares Trump's stand, particularly towards China trade, to President Ronald Reagan's tough approach with Russia during the Cold War.
Reagan also engaged in aggressive trade policies, including quotas on Japaneses cars. Some analysts say the policies were mixed.
Trump first proposed tariffs in March to correct what he deemed were unfair trading practices — moves that were met with retaliatory measures from the European Union, Canada, Mexico and China.
On Thursday, a new round of U.S. tariffs on $16 billion worth of Chinese imports kicked in, prompting an equivalent retaliation from Beijing.
El-Erian, considered one of the most influential financial market thinkers in the world, has previously said he expects the U.S. will win the trade war, citing the performance of U.S. markets relative to China and others.
But the former CEO of investment powerhouse Pimco said on CNBC Monday the real question for investors is "how much damage would we incur in the process of winning this?"
"I've said from day one, it's just a matter of time until other countries realize that their best approach is to collaborate with the U.S. and fix things that are broken," El-Erian said.
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