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Friday, March 1, 2019

What's next for Venezuela? Anti-Maduro allies regroup after the fight for humanitarian aid

Venezuela's opposition has formally urged the international community to keep all options on the table, after deadly clashes broke out in border towns over the weekend.

On Saturday, at least three people were killed and hundreds more were left injured, Reuters reported, as opposition activists tried to defy a government ban to bring food supplies, hygiene kits and nutritional supplements into the country.

It comes at a time when the South American nation is in the midst of the Western Hemisphere's worst humanitarian crisis in recent memory.

President Donald Trump has consistently refused to rule out the prospect of military intervention in Venezuela and the country's opposition leader, Juan Guaido, has called on the international community to "keep all options open."

U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo tweeted over the weekend that Washington would "take action against those who oppose the peaceful restoration of democracy in Venezuela."

To be sure, the prospect of U.S.-led military intervention is clearly being signaled as a form of "action."

"I think large-scale U.S. military intervention remains unlikely, though the chances are increasing — that's worrying," Tom Long, assistant professor in the department of politics and international studies at the University of Warwick, told CNBC via email.

"More than the deadly clashes, what I worry could push towards military action is the lack of options remaining for the opposition and its international allies to increase pressure," he added.

Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro welcomed Juan Guaido on Thursday, in an attempt to shore up international pressure on President Nicolas Maduro. It follows an inconclusive meeting of regional leaders in Colombia earlier this week.

Shortly after the meeting, Guaido told reporters he would return to Venezuela within days — despite grave concerns for his safety.

"Nothing would fragment the regional support for the opposition, or the relative unity of the opposition around Guaido, more than U.S. military intervention," Long said.

Pressure is building on Maduro to step down. The socialist leader has overseen a long economic meltdown, marked by hyperinflation, mounting U.S. sanctions and collapsing oil production.

As a result, some three million Venezuelans have fled abroad over the past five years to escape worsening living conditions.

More than 50 countries, including the U.S. and most Latin American and European countries, have now recognized Guaido as Venezuela's legitimate leader.

It has thrust the oil-rich, but cash-poor, country into uncharted territory — whereby it now has an internationally-recognized government, with no control over state functions, running parallel to Maduro's regime.

"Guaido will continue pushing… to deliver this humanitarian aid in an effort not to lose momentum and also all the regional actors will continue pushing hard on Venezuela because they want to curb, somehow, the migration crisis," Diego Moya-Ocampos, principal political analyst for Latin America at IHS Markit, told CNBC via telephone.

"I think most efforts are now concentrated to make sure that the aid is delivered and to try to establish better logistics so that the Venezuelan people can indeed have access to the food and to medical supplies," he added.

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Credit Suisse on stocks: 'We love China at the moment'

Credit Suisse sees further upside for the Chinese markets, even after shares on the mainland made their largest monthly gain in almost four years in February.

"I think (the) China market is going to go up from here, all the signs are there," Suresh Tantia, a senior investment strategist at Credit Suisse's Asia-Pacific CIO Office, told CNBC's "Capital Connection" on Friday. "If you're a global equity fund manager, I think you need to be in China."

Tantia said there were a number of reasons behind his positive take on China.

One such factor was optimism over the state of the ongoing U.S.-China trade negotiations, he said: "There have been signs that, most likely, we will see some sort of deal taking place in the next few months."

Furthermore, he added, China's economy appears to be stabilizing despite the weak February manufacturing numbers from the country.

Acknowledging that Friday's release of a private survey indicated China's manufacturing sector contracted, the Credit Suisse strategist said domestic demand appeared "very strong."

The Caixin/Markit Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) came in at 49.9 for February — higher than January's reading of 48.3, and better than the 48.5 that economists polled by Reuters had forecast. Still, a reading below 50.0 indicates a contraction in activity.

"It was the export number which led to the weakness in the PMI numbers," Tantia said.

Still, taking multiple factors into consideration, he added, the data showed that the recent course of fiscal and monetary stimulus from the Chinese government is "actually working."

"We love China at the moment," Tantia said.

"They said pigs don't fly, but I think they do when it's their time, and this is the Year of the Pig," he said, in reference to the zodiac animal which represents the current Chinese lunar year.

Tantia's comments came after the Chinese markets skyrocketed in February. The Shanghai composite ended the month up 13.8 percent — its largest monthly gain since April 2015, according to Reuters.

— CNBC's Huileng Tan contributed to this report.

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